Charisma wins elections

Presidential candidate Bill Clinton debates President George HW Bush, 1992.

In 2004, Paul Graham (computer scientist and founder of Y Combinator) wrote an essay arguing charisma has won every American presidential election since the advent of television.

Not the economy. Not ground games. Not October surprises. Not policy.

Charisma.

According to Graham, issues matter. But both major parties know which issues matter, and how much. So they split the difference on issues.

Charisma is what tips the scale.

Here’s the outcome of every presidential election since 1960, when TV became a thing.

1960 - JFK beat Nixon

1964 - LBJ beat Goldwater

1968 - Nixon beat Humphrey

1972 - Nixon beat McGovern

1976 - Carter beat Ford

1980 - Reagan beat Carter

1984 - Reagan beat Mondale

1988 - George HW Bush beat Dukakis

1992 - Bill Clinton beat George HW Bush

1996 - Bill Clinton beat Dole

2000 - George W Bush beat Gore

2004 - George W Bush beat Kerry

2008 - Obama beat McCain

2012 - Obama beat Romney

2016 - Trump beat Hillary Clinton

Charisma isn’t easy to measure. But we know it when we see it. And I can’t find an election in the above list where the less charismatic candidate won.

Maybe Graham is right.

And the formula is simpler than we think.